Thursday, August 06, 2009

The Future of Home Prices

By JAMES R. HAGERTY
Over the past few years, Americans have had a brutal lesson in the risks of real estate. House prices have crashed more than 35% in some parts of the country, millions of people are losing their homes to foreclosure, and banks are failing.

The takeaway? Many Americans still see real estate as their best shot at wealth. In survey after survey, people expect prices to bounce back -- in some cases, as soon as six months from now.

Those hoping for a quick rebound are likely to be disappointed. Economists and other pros generally say home prices won't bottom out before the second half of 2009, and some don't see a bottom until 2011 or 2012. Even when they stop falling, prices may scrape along the bottom of the rut for years.

Down the Road

And longer term? Over the next 10 to 20 years, housing economists expect prices will rise again -- but, on average, probably not nearly as much as they've averaged over the past decade. That isn't to say that some places won't experience booms (and busts). But, the experts say, you should generally expect house prices to rise just a bit more than inflation and roughly in line with household income.

Karl Case, an economics professor at Wellesley College whose name adorns the S&P Case-Shiller home-price indexes, has studied U.S. house prices going back to the 1890s. Over the long run, he says, home prices tend to increase on average at an inflation-adjusted rate of 2.5% to 3% a year, about the same as per capita income. He thinks that long-run pattern is likely to continue, despite the recent choppiness.

Other experts make similarly modest predictions. William Wheaton, a professor of economics and real estate at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, says he expects house prices to increase at a rate roughly one percentage point higher than inflation over the long term. Celia Chen, director of housing economics at Moody's Economy.com, a research firm, expects house prices to increase an average of around 4% a year over the next couple of decades.

Some experts say it's a bad idea to count on your home rising in value at all. People should think of their own homes mainly as places to live, not as investments, advises Kenneth Rosen, chairman of the Fisher Center for Real Estate at the University of California, Berkeley. Sure, home mortgages provide tax benefits, and most homes appreciate in value over the long run, he says, but there is always risk.

For all of those forecasts, many Americans are undaunted. Consider three surveys, all from October.

In a poll of 2,000 adults, real-estate-data provider Zillow.com found that 61% believed the value of their home would either remain level or rise over the next six months. Another survey of more than 1,000 homeowners, sponsored by real-estate-services firm Realogy Corp., found that 91% thought that owning a home was the best long-term investment they could make. And an online survey of 5,000 people commissioned by Citigroup found that just 32% believed it was a good time to invest in stocks -- but 51% said it was a good time to buy a home.

"I just believe in real estate," says Jason Schram, a lawyer in Chicago who has bought two rental properties this year at what he considers fire-sale prices. "I've seen over and over people I know build wealth through rental real estate, and that's the path I intend taking, even though it's a bit bumpy at the moment."

Location, Location

So, as homeowners and buyers look ahead, what factors will determine whether their homes are really likely to rise in value, rather than just in their dreams? What are some of the bullish signs -- and some of the bearish ones?

In the long term, house prices are driven by fundamentals that are hard to predict: immigration, birth rates, the size and nature of households, and incomes. The trick is to figure out where job and income growth will be strongest and where immigrants and others will want to live.
William Frey, a demographer and senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, a think tank in Washington, says young people and immigrants are likely to flow to Florida, Georgia, the Carolinas, Tennessee, Virginia, Nevada, Arizona and some of the more affordable interior parts of California.

These areas generally have lower housing costs than the Pacific Coast or Northeast and job growth from modern industries and leisure businesses, he says. Areas with little immigration and low growth or falling populations are likely to include Michigan, Ohio, the Dakotas, Iowa, western Pennsylvania and upstate New York, Mr. Frey says.

Hit Parade

Newland Communities LLC, a San Diego-based planner and developer of neighborhoods, employs a full-time researcher to study long-term housing demand and ranks metro areas in terms of their growth prospects. Among those near the top of Newland's hit parade are Washington, D.C., Raleigh and Charlotte, N.C., Atlanta, Dallas, Houston, Phoenix and Las Vegas, says Robert McLeod, the developer's chief executive.

All of them, Newland believes, will keep growing because they have well-diversified regional economies and other attractions, including mild climates. With the exception of Washington, they all have fairly affordable housing costs. Washington has a highly educated work force, high incomes, a stable source of government-related jobs and rapidly expanding technology firms, Newland says.

"The older industrial cities are going to suffer" from shrinking employment and forbidding weather, says Mr. Rosen of the University of California. Some Sun Belt cities, including Atlanta, also could languish if traffic jams and sprawl ruin their charms, he says.

Among metro areas that Mr. Rosen expects to do well in the long run are Albuquerque, N.M.; Boise, Idaho; Salt Lake City; Seattle; Portland, Ore.; Denver and Colorado Springs, Colo. He says those places generally offer "urban vitality" and "easy access to outdoor activities" combined with affordable housing and good job-growth prospects from modern industries, such as biotechnology.

Still, just looking at population trends isn't enough. Prices in the crowded coastal areas tend to be more volatile, rising and then falling much faster during booms and busts than do inland areas, Mr. Case notes. Shortages of land and building restrictions make it hard for builders to respond quickly when demand for housing rises in coveted neighborhoods near the coasts; further inland, it's usually much easier to find vacant homes or land, and so sudden movements in prices are less likely.

For instance, despite rapid growth, home prices in Texas cities have tended to climb only gradually. Those cities typically have plenty of room to sprawl, and Texas regulates land use less strictly than many other states. Supply swells to meet demand.

The Wonder Years

What's more, no one can assess the outlook for housing without considering the effects of 78 million aging baby boomers. For instance, some housing experts believe the boomers will be much less likely than their parents to settle for sun and golf in their retirement; they may prefer urban settings with lots of cultural life or to live nearer friends and families. That could mean higher demand -- and increased prices -- for housing in urban neighborhoods.

Most of this is just guesswork, though. "A lot of people have theories about the baby boomers," says Mr. Frey, the Brookings demographer, but boomers always have tended to confound expectations.

Dowell Myers, a professor of urban planning and demography at the University of Southern California, warns that the retirement of boomers over the next two decades is likely to depress house prices in many areas. As boomers relocate to retirement homes and cemeteries, there will be a lot more sellers than buyers in parts of the country, he says.

"It's going to really mess up the housing market," says Mr. Myers. He predicts that this "generational correction" will be larger and longer-lasting than the current slump.
To get a sense of the effects of aging boomers, Mr. Myers looks at the number of Americans 65 and over per 1,000 working-age people. He sees that number soaring to 318 in the year 2020 and 411 in 2030 from 238 in 2000.

Many people over 65 buy homes, of course, but as they get older they become more likely to sell than buy. People aged 75 to 79 are more than three times as likely to be sellers than buyers, Mr. Myers says.

In some areas, younger people will be happy to buy (and probably renovate) those boomer nests. The problem, Mr. Myers says, will be in places where lots of older people are selling and few young people are settling down. He says the effects will be strongest in the "coldest, most congested and most expensive states rather than the high-growth states of the South or West." Among the states where Mr. Myers sees downward pressure on prices within the next decade: Connecticut, Pennsylvania, New York and Massachusetts.

Of course, applying demographic trends to house-price forecasts can be hazardous. Economists N. Gregory Mankiw and David Weil predicted in a paper in 1989 that demographic trends would lead to a "substantial" fall in real, or inflation-adjusted, home prices over the next two decades "if the historical relation between housing demand and housing prices continues." They reasoned that baby boomers were coming to the end of their prime house-buying years and that the smaller baby-bust generation would bring lower demand for housing.

That warning proved, at a minimum, premature. Despite the recent drop, the average U.S. home price is up about 35% in real terms since the end of 1989, according to the Ofheo index. Messrs. Mankiw and Weil both declined to comment.

Few people who invest in housing have time to follow these academic debates. For nearly four decades, Rich Sommer and his wife, Carolyn, have been investing in rental properties in and near Stevens Point, Wis. Mr. Sommer describes real estate as a good way "to get rich slowly." He and his wife, both former schoolteachers, gradually have built their net worth from zero to around $2.5 million through their rental properties. They have dealt with countless plumbing emergencies, evicted deadbeats and even once had to clean up after a suicide in one of their properties.

Still, he hasn't been hit very hard by the real-estate crash, in part because the Midwest is much less vulnerable to booms and busts than coastal areas. When asked what he would do if someone handed him $1 million today, Mr. Sommer doesn't hesitate: He would put it into real estate.—Mr. Hagerty is a staff reporter for The Wall Street Journal in Pittsburgh.

Write to James R. Hagerty at bob.hagerty@wsj.com

Home Prices Rise Across US

Home prices in major U.S. cities registered the first monthly gain in nearly three years, according to a new report that provided fresh evidence that the severe U.S. housing downturn could be easing.

Standard & Poor's Case-Shiller index, which tracks home prices in 20 metropolitan areas, rose 0.5% for the three-month period ending in May, compared with the three months ending in April. It marked the index's first increase after 34 straight months of decline, and came after a variety of housing indicators has shown glimmers of hope for the past several months.

Home prices remained down about 17% from a year earlier, according to the index. According to S&P/Case-Schiller's seasonally adjusted numbers, which it began reporting only earlier this year, prices in May posted a 0.2% decline.

But most Wall Street economists who discussed the survey focused on the April-to-May rise, saying it represents a significant change in direction. Home prices in 15 of the 20 areas in the survey rose or remained stable.

The results were also consistent with other recent housing data, these economists said. Sales of new and existing homes rose for three consecutive months through June. Housing starts were up in June, and an index of builder sentiment rose in July, though both remained at low levels.
May's uptick came in part as home prices in some areas fell enough for investors and first-time buyers to begin competing for bargains, helping to ease the backlog of unsold homes.
Other likely sales spurs included mortgage rates that fell to 50-year lows, an $8,000 federal-tax credit for first-time homebuyers and the ability of buyers to secure mortgages from the Federal Housing Administration with as little as 3.5% down.

The latest readings don't necessarily herald a full-blown recovery for the housing market or broader economy. Consumer confidence remains near record lows. The U.S. unemployment rate, at 9.5% in June, is expected to hit double digits before year end, making swift growth and an expanding labor force unlikely anytime soon.

The home-sale numbers surprised Robert Shiller, the Yale University economist who helped create the Case-Shiller indexes. "The change in momentum here is very significant," he said. Last month, Mr. Shiller forecast sustained home-price declines into the next few years, which he said now looks less plausible. He said he expects home prices to remain near current levels for the next five years.

U.S. home prices have fallen by about one-third since their peak in the second quarter of 2006, according to S&P, and are roughly back at 2003 levels.

Some analysts warn that the home-price uptick could reverse as rising unemployment causes more Americans to fall behind on their mortgage payments and end up in foreclosure.
One factor that apparently drove the March-through-May uptick was a falling share of homes sold at distressed prices, through foreclosure and so-called short sales. Distressed sales accounted for 33% of existing home sales in May and 31% in June, down from a high of nearly 50% earlier this year, according to the National Association of Realtors.

The drop in foreclosure sales was likely the product of U.S. banks' moratorium on home foreclosures, which they undertook as the government launched a round of programs to modify and refinance loans for at-risk borrowers. Most banks ended their foreclosure moratoria in March.

Interest rates also hovered at or below 5% for most of the March-May period, before rising in June.

"Were it not for those rate reductions and the moratorium, you'd see prices down right now," says Ronald Temple, co-Director of Research at Lazard Asset Management. He expects the index to stabilize or increase in the short-term, but forecasts another 12-15% decline in prices thereafter.

Regardless, a combination of still-low interest rates and eager sellers continues to fuel competition for heavily discounted properties. Some buyers are finding that investors with all-cash offers are consistently beating them in bidding wars.

Stacy Watson, a 39-year-old human-resources manager in the Riverside, Calif., area, says she has made losing bids on at least eight homes since mid-June. On Tuesday, she says, she decided to increase her offer for a five-bedroom home in Perris, Calif., to $198,000, nearly $20,000 more than the asking price.

Ms. Watson and her real-estate agent say the bank-owned home has drawn more than 10 offers in less than a week on the market. "Everyone says it's such a great housing market for buyers," she says. "No. This is hard."

Would-be homeowners have benefited from government programs, including one that allows buyers of properties owned by Fannie Mae to receive mortgages from the government-controlled mortgage-finance company with down payments as low as 3%.

When Nelly Whiteman and her husband recently bought a house out of foreclosure from Fannie Mae, she figures they competed against at least two other buyers. The 27-year-old administrative assistant says they snagged their three-bedroom home in Orangevale, Calif., for $176,000, or about $5,000 more than the asking price. They now pay about $1,080 a month in mortgage payments, insurance and taxes.

"It's an extra bedroom for around what we were paying for rent," she says.
The budding housing recovery isn't being felt across the country. Prices increased in 13 of 20 surveyed markets, with the strongest gains coming in Cleveland, up 4.1% from April; Dallas, up 1.9%; and Boston, up 1.6%.

Home prices were flat in the New York and Tampa, Fla., areas. The survey doesn't track condominium or cooperative apartment sales, so it doesn't take into account the majority of housing stock in New York City.

Prices continue to fall in some markets, particularly overbuilt Sunbelt cities. Prices in Las Vegas declined 2.6% in May from April and were down 32% from a year ago, according to S&P/Case-Shiller. Phoenix prices declined 0.9% from April and were down 34% from May 2008. San Francisco, Miami and Detroit also continued to see year-on-year declines of about 25%.

"Is this just a spring bounce that was partly related to the drop in distressed sales?" asks Thomas Lawler, an independent housing economist based in Leesburg, Va. One key question, he says, is whether another wave of foreclosures could come along to offset the home-inventory decline that has boosted many markets.

In many of the hardest-hit cities, banks appear to be slow to put foreclosed homes on the market. In Las Vegas, for example, banks had taken title to 13,200 homes as of June. That surpassed the total number of homes listed for sale in Las Vegas last month, according to SalesTraq, which monitors inventory in Las Vegas. "Are the banks are intentionally holding back inventory? That's a question a lot of us have," says Larry Murphy, president of SalesTraq.

Some housing analysts say they expect falling prices on mid-to high-end homes to weigh on the Case-Shiller index. The supply of these homes has swelled in recent months as borrowers struggle to obtain financing.

Borrowers of "jumbo" mortgages, which are too big for government backing, face higher rates. Banks are also requiring bigger down-payments at a time when traditional "trade-up" buyers are finding that the equity in their homes has fallen.

"We think [the sales index] will look like a 'W,' where prices go up until the foreclosures at the higher end translate into another leg lower," says Ivy Zelman, chief executive of Zelman & Associates, a housing-research firm.

The improvement in housing likely gave a small boost to U.S. gross domestic product in the second quarter, economists said. After data showed construction of new homes was stronger than expected in June and was revised higher in April and May, Macroeconomic Advisers, a St. Louis-based forecasting group, ratcheted up its estimate of second-quarter economic growth. It now sees output shrinking at just a 0.5% annual rate in the second quarter, compared with declines of 6.3% and 5.5% in the previous two quarters.

The government will report its official estimate of second-quarter growth on Friday.

3 Year Descent in Home Prices Appears at End

July 29, 2009
Recovery Signs in Housing Market Stir Some Hope

By DAVID STREITFELD

After a plunge lasting three years, houses have finally become cheap enough to lure buyers. That, in turn, is stabilizing prices, generating hope that the real estate market is beginning to recover.

Eight cities, including Chicago, Cleveland, Denver and San Francisco, showed price increases in May, up from four in April and one in March, according to data released Tuesday. Two other cities, Charlotte, N.C., and New York, were flat.

For the first time since early 2007, a composite index of 20 major cities was virtually flat, instead of down.

“We’ve found the bottom,” said Mark Fleming, chief economist for First American CoreLogic, a data firm.

The release of the surprisingly strong Case-Shiller Price Index, compiled by Standard & Poor’s, followed earlier reports that sales of existing homes rose last month for the third consecutive time, while sales of new homes rose in June by the largest percentage in eight years.
All of these improvements are tentative, and come after a relentless decline that knocked more than half the value off houses in the worst-hit cities.

Some skeptics say they believe the market is merely pausing before it resumes falling and that much of the life in the market is coming from speculators. Even the most enthusiastic analysts acknowledge that rising unemployment, another leap in foreclosures or a significant jump in interest rates could snuff out progress.

Still, hope is growing in some quarters that the worst has passed.

“Recession is over, economy is recovering — let’s look forward and stop the backward-looking focus,” John E. Silvia, the Wells Fargo chief economist, wrote Tuesday in a research note.
Kirit Shah decided to look forward a few weeks ago. A retired forensic chemist for the New York Police Department, he closed on a house in Royal Palm Beach, Fla.

Mr. Shah was not dissuaded when the salesman at K. Hovnanian Homes told him the five-bedroom place had been empty since it was finished three years ago. “It was waiting for me,” said Mr. Shah, 64. “I’m on a lakefront. I never dreamed I would be on a lakefront. I’m within walking distance of a swimming pool.”

But the thing he likes best is this: he paid $260,000 for the five-bedroom house, half of what that model was fetching during the boom. “An excellent deal,” he said. “Plus I got a good rate on my mortgage, under 5 percent.”

Turning markets are full of uncertainty. If Mr. Shah was one reason new home sales were up 11 percent in June from May, it is unclear just how many others like him are out there.
Brad Hunter, chief economist for Metrostudy, a research firm, said the new home numbers appeared to illustrate less a return of buyers like Mr. Shah and more a resurgence of investors and speculators. Metrostudy’s own data showed that the number of buyers during the second quarter who actually moved into their new house declined 2.6 percent.

“Investors are turning right around and putting the houses on the market for sale or for rent,” Mr. Hunter said. “What appears to have been an absorption of excess inventory can be just a changing of ownership of that inventory.”

The good news in the Case-Shiller index, the most widely watched source of price information about the housing market, is equally provisionary. Tracking only large urban areas, the monthly index does not represent the country as a whole.

The Case-Shiller figures released Tuesday showed May prices were down 17.1 compared with May 2008. As bad as that may sound, it was the fourth consecutive month that price declines slowed — a step in the right direction, but perhaps not cause for widespread celebration.
More attention was focused on the news that, when May was compared with April, the price index for 20 major cities showed a half-percent gain. It was the first month-over-month increase in the index in 34 months.

“It is very possible that years from now we will say that April 2009 was the trough in home prices,” said Maureen Maitland, vice president for index services at Standard & Poor’s.
When the numbers were adjusted for seasonal factors, however — the usual way housing figures are presented — the slight gain disappeared and the index was essentially flat. Half of the cities showed continued declines.

One reason the market is perking up in some places, real estate agents say, is the encouragement offered by such measures as the first time buyer’s tax credit of $8,000.
All the more reason, said the National Association of Realtors, to not only extend the credit but expand it. The association is lobbying for the current credit, which expires in December, to be replaced with a $15,000 credit for all buyers.

“This is a relatively low-cost way to keep the housing market moving forward,” said Paul Bishop, the association’s managing director of research.

Another reason for the market’s resurgence is the prevalence of foreclosures, which make up about a third of all existing home sales. In some troubled regions, agents say they cannot remember the last transaction that did not involve a bank disposing of a property.
These communities are not yet showing any improvement in prices. Las Vegas was the worst-performing city in the May Case-Shiller index, falling 2.6 percent. Prices have fallen there by a third in the last year.

“The mom and pop that work at the Hilton can now afford a home here again,” said Justin Pechonis, a Las Vegas real estate agent. “Las Vegas is a great place to buy now.” But not from him. Sickened by seeing so many clients foreclosed on, he is getting out of the business. He now drives a taxi.

All this uncertainty breeds a hesitancy that seems to show up in nearly every sale, especially at the higher end of the market. When Margot and Pascal Lalonde decided in April to sell their two-bedroom condominium in the North End of Boston, they methodically quizzed six experienced agents about a good price.

List it for under $500,000 unless you want to be here for months, said one agent. Two others said they should demand $675,000. The other three were in between.
“In a market with so few sales, no one knows what to do,” said Ms. Lalonde, a consultant.

After 80 days on the market and two small price reductions, the condo is now under contract for $550,000. The buyers examined the apartment six times. The Lalondes, who are moving to Short Hills, N.J., expect to be no less careful when they buy.

High End Homes Frozen Out of Budding Housing Rebound

By NICK TIMIRAOS and JAMES R. HAGERTY

KENILWORTH, Ill. -- Housing is fast dividing into two markets: Sales of low- and moderately priced homes are picking up and values have stopped falling in some parts of the nation. But on the upper end, sales remain mired in a deep slump and price declines are expected to accelerate.
Signs of the divide are visible across the country, including in suburban Chicago. In middle-class Schaumburg, Ill., which had a median income of $65,000 in 2007, sales were up 41% in June from the depressed level of a year earlier and bidding wars have broken out on some properties. "I can't even tell you how many I've been in over the last two months," says Joe Stacy, a local real-estate agent.

But 25 miles away in the affluent town of Kenilworth, with a median income of $230,000, home sales have stalled. While there are 65 homes on the market, just 13 have sold this year. "We're extremely oversupplied," says Sherry Molitor, a local real-estate agent. "Sellers are struggling to realize that we're back to 2001-02 prices."

The divide between the mass market and the high-end -- generally defined as homes that cost above $750,000 -- partly reflects the effects of Washington's housing-rescue plan, which is producing winners and losers.

Policymakers have helped spur sales of lower-priced homes by offering first-time buyers a federal tax credit of as much as $8,000, by driving mortgage rates to near 50-year lows and by expanding the mission of the Federal Housing Administration, which will guarantee mortgages for consumers buying homes with down payments as low as 3.5%.

Sales at the lower end are also helped by the large number of foreclosed homes that banks have dumped at fire-sale prices, which has pulled down values of neighboring houses and sparked bargain hunting. Prices in both Las Vegas and Phoenix are down more than 50% from their peaks of several years ago, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller index.

Home prices tracked by that index rose 0.5% for the three-month period ending in May versus the three-month period ending in April, the first monthly gain in nearly three years. Prices have shown signs of stabilizing in recent months as the share of distressed homes, including those that sell out of foreclosure, falls from highs reached earlier this year.

Low prices have ignited a home-buying boom in some markets. In June, sales of single-family homes in the Las Vegas area were up about 70% from a year earlier.

For affluent buyers, it's a different story.

The $8,000 tax credit for first-time homeowners phases out for single buyers whose incomes exceed $75,000, or married couples earning more than $150,000. Low-interest-rate mortgages backed by the FHA and government-controlled mortgage companies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are only available on loans below limits set by Congress. Last year, Congress increased those limits to $417,000 in most markets, and to as high as $729,750 in certain high-cost markets, including parts of Hawaii, California, New York and Washington, D.C.

Mortgages for amounts that exceed those limits are called "jumbo" mortgages, and face higher interest rates. Last week, the average rate on a 30-year mortgage below the limits was 5.42% compared with 6.33% for jumbos, according to HSH Associates, a financial publisher.
Extremely wealthy people may not need a mortgage. But buyers who take mortgages for expensive homes generally face higher rates and tighter lending standards. Most banks that offer jumbo mortgages are generally requiring down payments of 20% to 30% or more, knocking out potential buyers who don't have much equity in their homes and have seen retirement savings fall.

While subprime mortgages sparked the first round of housing problems two years ago, now "troubles are lurking further up the food chain," says Joshua Shapiro, chief U.S. economist at MFR Inc. White-collar job losses have accelerated while more adjustable-rate loans to prime borrowers are resetting to higher payments. "You put all that together, it leads me to believe that the next leg down on home prices is going to come from the top," he says.

To be sure, the affluent housing market is substantially smaller than the mass market. Sales of existing homes priced over $750,000 accounted for 2.3% of all sales in the first quarter of this year, compared to 4.4% of the housing market in 2007, according to the National Association of Realtors.

Still, the distress in high-end market has implications for consumer spending: the top 10% of U.S. households in terms of income accounted for 23% of consumer spending in 2007, according to government statistics. As those households watch their home equity evaporate, they are more reluctant to spend on housing upgrades or other items.

Inventory of expensive homes is rising. Overall, the inventory of unsold homes in June was enough to last 9.4 months at the current selling pace, down from 11 months a year ago, according to the NAR. But the supply of unsold homes priced above $750,000 swelled to around 17 months in June, up from a 14.5-month backlog one year ago. A recent forecast by analysts at J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. said it would take until at least 2012 for the expensive-home market to recover and that peak-to-trough declines could surpass 60%, compared to 40% for the rest of the market.

Defaults are rising, too. Among prime mortgages, jumbo mortgages are now leading delinquencies and defaults and are the fastest-rising category for defaults of all types of mortgages. The rate of 60-day delinquencies on prime-jumbo mortgages jumped to 7.4% in May, from 4.5% in November, according to First American CoreLogic. By comparison, 60-day delinquencies on prime-conforming loans reached 4.9% in May, from 3.6% in November.
A recent survey by the NAR found nearly three-quarters of real-estate agents said buyers were purchasing smaller houses due to tighter credit requirements. "We're in a 'trade-down' environment for the first time since the 1930s," says Kenneth Rosen, chairman of the Fisher Center for Real Estate and Urban Economics at the University of California, Berkeley.
High-end homes are also being hurt by changing perceptions about how much home one should own. For years, people were encouraged to buy the most expensive home they could afford because there would be a payoff when it was time to sell. But buyers can't count on that any longer.

Having lost large amounts in the stock market and on real estate, "a lot of people are licking their wounds and hoarding their cash," says Sally Daley, a real-estate broker who sells luxury homes in Vero Beach, Fla. She says many customers are asking, "Do I really need this big a house?"

Even families who can come up with the hefty down payments are buying more conservatively. Gabi Marks, an attorney, and her husband Don, an engineer, recently sold their condo and bought a five-bedroom Victorian house in San Francisco to accommodate their growing family.
They paid about $1.58 million, staying below their self-imposed ceiling of $1.8 million. "We made sure we had a sufficient [financial] cushion," Ms. Marks says. They made a down payment of about 30%, partly to qualify for a lower-cost loan, and plan to pay down a big chunk of debt as soon as the sale of their condo is completed.

When the foreclosure crisis began two years ago, there were few signs the high-end market would suffer. "It's God's country," Leslie Appleton-Young, chief economist for the California Association of Realtors, told an audience of real-estate agents in 2007. "When is the 30% decline in Marin County's market going to happen? Not in my lifetime."

Home prices there have fallen by 21% from their 2006 peak, according to Zillow.com, a real-estate Web site. Ms. Appleton-Young now says there's "no doubt that the high-end housing prices have adjusted and will continue to adjust."

Few in Kenilworth ever expected the price declines that began in markets decimated by subprime loans and house-flippers would ever reach their streets, which are lined with Tudor mansions, manicured lawns, and for-sale signs.

The community, which has a bowling league and a sailing club and is consistently named as one of America's wealthiest towns, was developed as a planned community 100 years ago on land purchased by Chicago retailer Joseph Sears, son of the founder of Sears, Roebuck & Co.
Today, the neighborhood is a microcosm of other high-end housing markets across the country, where homeowners are frozen in their homes, postponing relocations or a planned downsizing because they aren't willing to cut prices.

Those who do drop their prices risk raising the ire of the neighbors. Peter Cummins, a local real-estate agent who lives in Kenilworth, caught some flak from residents in June after chopping the asking price of a six-bedroom home to about $1.6 million from nearly $2 million. To draw attention to the cut, he produced a flier reading: "Hey Chicken Little, is that the sky falling in Kenilworth?"

Some residents are angry because policymakers in Washington specifically excluded jumbo mortgages in housing-rescue plans. "We're considered either rich people who don't deserve help or deadbeats who bought too much house," says Kelli Kobor, a 42-year-old substitute high school teacher. "I don't see Washington prepared to deal with us."

Five years ago, she and her husband bought their five-bedroom Dutch colonial in Kenilworth for $1.3 million with a 25% down payment using equity they'd built up from two previous homes. Her husband lost his job in December and took a new one that pays much less, making it harder to make mortgage payments. Ms. Kobor says she missed her first mortgage payment in the spring but is now current.

In July, her mortgage servicer agreed to temporarily lower her interest rate for six months, and the unpaid balance will go into a balloon payment due when the loan is paid off.
Like many young families that move to Kenilworth, Ms. Kobor and her husband were drawn by the town's top-rated public elementary school, which is just a few steps from their home, and the tight-knit community of 800 households.

Local real-estate agents have told her she'd be lucky to sell the house for the $960,000 that's owed on their jumbo adjustable-rate mortgage. Her lender, Thornburg Mortgage, specialized in prime jumbo loans and filed for protection from creditors under bankruptcy law in March.
Unable to sell his home in nearby Winnetka, Ill., Brad Davis, a 43-year-old attorney, has commuted to Washington, D.C., for the past year after taking a new job there.

He recently cut the asking price on his four-bedroom brick Tudor by $100,000 to around $1.4 million after it didn't draw any offers in eight months on the market. Most potential buyers have a big obstacle: They would first have to find buyers for their own homes.

"You're not sure if it's a price issue or if there just aren't any buyers," says Mr. Davis, a father of two young children. While he says he doesn't mind the long commute, "not being able to come home every night is the hard part."

Others have pulled their million-dollar homes off the market and are offering them as rentals. Susan Forney rented her six-bedroom Georgian colonial in Northfield, Ill., for $7,500 a month after it didn't sell.

Over the past two years, she reduced the price by $1 million to $2.25 million, but her only offer came in at $1.6 million, about $100,000 less than she paid for the house in 1999.
Ms. Kobor says it is ironic that two of the most powerful men in the country know of these problems first hand.

Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner decided to rent out his Larchmont, N.Y., home after it failed to sell and President Obama purchased a $1.65 million Chicago home with a $1.3 million jumbo mortgage in 2005, at the height of the real-estate bubble. The property is now worth $1.2 million, according to an estimate by Zillow.

The Treasury Department and the White House declined to comment.

Write to Nick Timiraos at nick.timiraos@wsj.com and James R. Hagerty at bob.hagerty@wsj.com

The Foreclosure King

Foreclosure king surfs troubled home waters

THE MARKET

Real estate broker Leo Nordine is working his well-timed magic in selling distressed houses.
By Ann Brenoff October 25, 2008

The South Bay's reigning King of Foreclosures runs around barefoot, doesn't own a cellphone and drives an 8-year-old Toyota Tundra pickup.

And without looking the part, Leo Nordine, an affable Hermosa Beach-based real estate broker, expects to average one escrow closing a day this year -- something that would make most agents salivate.

Nordine, a 45-year-old native son and surfer didn't just catch the current foreclosure tidal wave, he has sold 3,500 bank-owned homes during the last two decades. He credits his uncanny ability to time the real estate market's cycles and position himself to reap its rewards as the key to his extraordinary success. And he does it all from the comfort of his home overlooking the Strand in Hermosa Beach.

Little about Nordine's road to riches is typical. He is a case study in how an intense young man without a formal education can be propelled by his drive and work ethic to the height of success -- even when he doesn't live and breathe his job.

"What's important to me," Nordine says, "is family, surfing and work -- in that order."
Born to European parents who immigrated to the U.S. so their son could be born a citizen, Nordine's childhood was far from the American dream.

His insurance salesman dad, who suffered from Parkinson's disease, left when Nordine was 5. His mom struggled to provide for him and his sister. He recalls the family moving from apartment to apartment, staying one step ahead of the eviction notices. Nordine bought 25-cent T-shirts at Goodwill to wear to school and took two paper routes for the Daily Breeze when he was old enough to have a job.

Nordine recalls how his dad reappeared one day and asked to borrow $200; he obliged, but the loan was never repaid.

"It was the best thing that ever happened to me," Nordine says, noting how he opened a savings account with his very next paycheck.

"Ever since," he says, "it always felt better to me to save than to consume."

Even today he doesn't dress, drive or live rich. In fact, his financial success has come as a total surprise to him. "I never figured myself to be someone who would amount to much," he said, recalling how at age 15 he'd drive his Plymouth Duster to Carlsbad with his longboard on the roof. He'd surf all day, sleep in the car and pick the oranges off people's trees come mealtime. After washing up in the Hadley Orchard Cafe, he'd avail himself of its free samples to supplement the fruit.

Then, at 17, Nordine met the woman who would become his first wife. He took a series of odd jobs to help support her and her child and -- encountering difficulties working for someone else -- was summarily fired from each of them.

When she became pregnant again, he set his sights on real estate. Much to his surprise, he had a natural gift for pricing and timing the market. Within three years, he opened his own business and has run things his way ever since. He began specializing in selling bank-owned properties in 1990 because, he says, that's where the market was headed.

Nordine's business model is E.T. Surf, the Hermosa Beach surf shop he frequented as a kid. He recalls how owner Eddie Talbot "always treated us with dignity, let us hang out like little sponges just soaking up the surfing atmosphere."

Nordine treats his own clients with the same respect. He understands that homeowners may regard him as the devil incarnate, the guy tasked with selling their homes -- sometimes out from under them.

He's fine with it. "Whether I sell their houses or not, they are getting foreclosed," he said. "I negotiate the best deal I can for them . . . cash for keys."

Nordine knows that anybody can fall victim to hard times. And the last thing he wants is for his youngest son, 6-year-old Nate, to think things come easily in life.

To that end, when Nate was just 2, Nordine took him on an outing to Watts. On the subway, Nate saw a homeless man whose disheveled appearance and erratic behavior scared him to the point of tears. When the man exited the train, he paused by the boy, put his hand on his shoulder and said, "I'm sorry I made you cry, son."

"Nate will always remember," Nordine said, "that not everyone is as fortunate as him."
Nordine has made his own fortune not only by selling homes but also by investing shrewdly. In the 1980s, he bought about 20 properties, most of them single-family homes in Torrance. He sold them off in 1990 and '91 when he anticipated a bust was coming. He dived back into the market in the mid-1990s -- this time apartments in Santa Monica -- and sold off most of them in 2005.

Today, he and his second wife own a 22-unit complex and a 12-unit complex in Santa Monica; a single-family home and a four-plex in El Segundo; nine bungalows and a four-plex in Torrance; a five-plex in Redondo Beach; and the house-office in Hermosa Beach.

But being a dad and husband is what it's all about for Nordine. His is the first face his son Nate sees every morning when he wakes and the last one he sees at bedtime.

So what advice does Nordine offer those concerned about the real estate market?

Don't sell unless you absolutely have to. Don't buy until 2010, when prices should be at 2000 levels. And apply every spare nickel to paying off your debt, including mortgages.

Brenoff is a Times staff writer.

ann.brenoff@latimes.com